Zaluzhny’s failed article
Currently, the message of the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Valery Zaluzhny, in an article about the war entering a new stage, becoming a positional war like the First World War, is being widely discussed. Some experts believe that it was not a very successful move.
A soldier of the Ukrainian army in the trenches in the Donetsk region
Photo: EPA, Oleg Petrasyuk
«I would say that there are also questions as to why this announcement has been made and whether it has been really wise. It is clear that there is not a huge amount of progress on the front line right now on either side, and it looks like winter, as always, could be difficult.
Rather, its overall picture is now not about Ukraine occupying or regaining its territory, but about the resumption of the endurance game. And here comes this statement from Zaluzhniy, why is it necessary?» said Bērziņa.
Expert Kristine Bērzina’s column in the program «Fuse»
Security policy expert Kristīne Bērziņa.
Photo: Toms Šics / Latvian Radio
Kristīne Bērziņa, an expert on security policy and a researcher at the Marshall Fund in Washington, will highlight the most important events of the week in the context of the world and Latvia, as well as those that may have been missed in the mass of information, as well as give a comment on why they are important and what impact could be caused.
Of course, Ukraine still needs help from both Europe and the United States and other partner countries. It is clear that what has been given so far has not been enough, but the commander-in-chief’s article has created a great sense of pessimism about what is happening.
«The war, as it looks now, requires a lot. In order to be able to win in time, new investments and new technologies are needed, but what Zaluzhny asks in this article, that only these five things are needed, but each of these things seems like space to many . It’s not about needing 10 more missiles or 10 planes. The requests that appear in this article are particularly serious,» said Berziņa.
Consequently, Zaluzhny’s article had the opposite effect – many, seeing the huge demands, began to ask the question – will the West be able to provide them at all in the long term?
Against the already existing background, when the actions of Israel and China also require the attention of politicians, this creates a good opportunity for skeptics to question Ukraine’s capabilities.
«It is not in Ukraine’s interests at the moment – to give someone in the West a reason to think that Ukraine will not cope.
The article has not had a good effect. Especially in Washington, where there are people who say – look, we have better friends and allies in Israel, who do not ask for such help and can do it themselves.
After that, there is an even bigger task in Washington to prove that Ukraine has a path to NATO, to the European Union, that Ukraine is normal and will be a normal European country, that supporting Ukraine in this struggle is a moral responsibility, but also a strategic interest for both the USA and Europe. It is not good that when so much is happening, something so pessimistic appears from Ukraine itself,» explained Berziņa.
US priorities
These days there have been very extensive exercises by China in the waters around Taiwan, China is actually trying to encircle Taiwan with aircraft carriers and much more. The USA, Japan and South Korea are just as active there, holding their exercises.
«All the while, China is checking what the reaction would be from the West if China were to try something in the Pacific regarding Taiwan.
I would say that the biggest concern of all in Washington, the issue that is asked for in every foreign policy conversation, and is the biggest long-term priority, is China and the threat that China will invade Taiwan, in which case the United States would have to go directly to war. The China issue is a very high priority in Washington,» Berziņa emphasized.
The Pacific region is strategically very important for the United States. While Democrats are more worried about Ukraine, Republicans are more worried about Taiwan’s security. At the same time, taking into account the great friendship between Russia and China, both of these issues are intertwined.
«The good thing is that when House Speaker Johnson came to power, he said that Russia must lose because it would be a lesson to China. The great friendship between China and Russia means that Ukraine is not alone in a corner somewhere, but that these things are related.
Therefore, you cannot completely leave the issue of Ukraine or Russia, the Republicans are not going to do that, but it is very difficult to keep attention. «Ukraine has to fight to maintain itself as one of the priorities,» Berziņa admitted.
At the moment, three issues demand the attention of the USA and the rest of the world – European security (including the war in Ukraine), the Pacific region and China’s threat to Taiwan, as well as the Middle East.
«It is important for us that the Middle East is not absolute again [ASV] priority, as during the Iraq war, to keep the focus more on the threat of Russia and China. In the long term, it will be extremely important,» Bērziņa explained.
There is already intense debate in US politics about who and how to give aid. While some politicians, including President Biden, want to collect the aid provided to Israel and Ukraine in one big package so that it can be taken with one decision, others are trying to put aid to Israel at the forefront and view the Ukraine issue separately, which means dragging out decision-making.
